foxcub15
Foxcub 15 |
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Fri, Dec. 19th, 2003 03:10 pm
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dude... It's facinating to see all the places people have linked my journal... neillparatzo linked my journal a couple of times on some chat thing.... (BUSTED!) One of my entries got linked by an Independants for Clark blogroll... "Fox in Portland likes Clark (hint: It's a person, not a network)" O.o My name shows up on logs of neillparatzo's linkage of me, and on the official Wes Clark, Dean, and even Lance Huan's blog. It's funny, the brief context makes it looks like I'm saying all the intellegent people are in the Republican party. XD The BBC published a comment attributted to me (it sounds like something I'd say): Democracy is not, in and of itself, a magic recipe for good government, or a better life. It is nothing more than an instrument of peace, a tool through which a disfavoured government can be rejected in favour of another, without violence. While that alone is good, there are many breeds of democracy, and one which exists in what we would think of as an oppressive society is not any less of a democracy. However, history has shown that people, given free access to information, more often than not tend to gravitate toward western-style secular governments. Historically, democracies are more peaceful, and tend to flourish. Based on this, I believe that bringing democracy to the world is a good thing. That leaves only the question of how to bring democracy to the world, and whether bringing democracy through war is an acceptable practice. Jonathan S. Fox, Portland OR, USAI apparently wrote a book on Push Polling as well. I don't think that was me. I'm the name of a virus (JS.Fox.). XD foxcat... >.> Look! It's me!This one really is me. I used to be on several rankings, now I'm just on the "Current top 50 Games" and only one of those. :/ A poll I posted once has now come to a conclusion: 7 in favor a female RPG character, 2 in favor of male. I may not be the only Foxcub15 out there, but I'm the only one whose name is plastered around cyberspace in a google search for the name. About about 1,420 hits, and every last one of them is me. Lots of Nathaniel Blairs, but outside of geneology and census records, there's only one Blair Nathaniel, and guess who it is. :) The ghost of a once-mighty nation.My journal is on the first page of google hits when you search for Justin's full name o.o;  
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foxcub15
Foxcub 15 |
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Wed, Dec. 17th, 2003 12:23 pm
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Thank god they pulled all the way through The Lord of the Rings well. I was worried they'd do a Matrix or a Star Wars where a lot of people thought it was a let down. I haven't seen it, but I'm pleased. ^_^
Back from the Portland Buisiness Alliance Forum Breakfast. An Economist named John Mitchell spoke and gave a powerpoint presentation. Mayor Katz was there, she walked right by our table, and I was turned away. Apparently she was dressed in classic Vera Katz style, her suit was fine, but she had this bright yellow coat with black prints all over it. Too bad she's not running for re-election, I think a lot of people like her.
One of the most interesting aspects he spoke about was the increase in output despite the decrease in employment. Productivity has gone up so fast lately that our economy has become extremely efficient, allowing us to lay off workers and still increase output. Our increases in output and decreases in employment have kept inflation very low, and that's led to being able to have such low interest rates, which in turn have allowed high investment and productivity gains. As long as we get steady employment gains, at this rate the economy will do well, and it should help our trade deficit.
Oregon really suffered due to our lack of a sales tax, consumer spending was steady all throughout the recession and our very weak recovery. But if things continue to improve, and employment in Oregon picks up, then income taxes will probably see bigger expansions in revinue than anything else, which should really help.
Another very strongly stressed point: The federal government needs fiscal dicipline, and very soon. The first baby boomers start getting social security in four or five years. Some estimates hold that we'll need to increase income taxes by an average of 27% in order to balance the budget by 2013. Of course, we don't have to do that. But long-term economic growth and productive investment will be limited by the needs of the government as our deficit increases, and what alternative method is there of funding the givernment needs, but hyperinflation? If there is another, please tell me. Remember that the greater our deficit, the more we have to pay in interest. The less investment required to prop up the government, the more investment available to support productive economic growth. But the higher inflation is, the cheaper the government's old debts are to repay, so if the economy is strangled by a lack of investment (and government deficits), reduce interest rates and print more money... which actually ends up discouraging investment in the end, and requires a very fast-paced flow of money to compensate. However, it doesn't encourage that fast-paced flow of money, because money is traded for goods, and it encourages hoarding of goods, thus slowing the economy down. And finally, it forces government expenditures up, because it devalues the money paid to employees, and makes currenet welfare levels worthless.
It also drives up the Oregon minimum wage, but that's beside the point.  
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foxcub15
Foxcub 15 |
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Wed, Dec. 17th, 2003 06:38 am
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Portland Business Alliance Forum Breakfast
December 17th Forum 7:00 am- registration starts 7:30 am-8:45 am Program Governor Hotel 611 SW 10th at Alder
Recovery: Delayed, But Not Denied
Speaker: John Mitchell, Economist, WESTERN REGION, U. S. Bancorp and Principal of M&H economic consultants
The national recession ended two years ago, but for much of the last two years rising output was not accompanied by employment gains, creating the so-called "jobless recovery." By the second half of 2003 employment was showing signs of net increases. Oregon began to experience employment declines in November of 2000 and after a few false celebrations Oregon seems to have bottomed out. This trauma was accompanied by fiscal chaos as the near total dependence on income taxes, no reserve funds, and the use of one-time revenues for ongoing programs came home to roost.
John Mitchell, in his enlightening and entertaining style, will reveal prospects for the national economy in 2004, along with the risks and Oregon's likely performance and challenges in 2004. Current Mood: sleepy ^_^  
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